MU worth $985—are you in panic or greed?

First, look at the surface: a 20% pullback from the highs. Retail investors are panicking and exiting the top.

One month ago it hit an all-time high at 1,255, then quickly slid back to the 950–1,000 area, with a maximum drawdown of about 20%. Currently, it’s choppy around 985, with daily price swings often exceeding 5–8%. The demand zone at 950–975 has been defended multiple times; MACD turns bullish, RSI rebounds from oversold. Once the pullback is over, the third leg of the main uptrend could start any time.

First thing: earnings blew through the ceiling—yet you’re still afraid of “good news being already priced in”?

Q3 revenue was $41.46 billion, up 346% year over year; EPS was $25.11; gross margin surged to 85%. Q4 guidance is even stronger—revenue of $50 billion, EPS of $31, gross margin of 86%.

DRAM is in short supply, and HBM capacity is getting snapped up all the way to 2028. Customers are lining up to pay. The company has already signed hard multi-year “no buy means penalties” agreements with 16 big players, locking in $22 billion in revenue.

Second thing: China’s AI models are not threatening—if anything, they’re boosting demand.

After Moonshot’s Kimi series open-source models came out, the market briefly panicked that “China’s low-cost AI will replace memory demand.” So what happened? BofA directly raised its target price—the logic flipped—

The cheaper and more widespread AI models become, the greater the memory demand on edge devices and at the endpoint. This isn’t replacement—it’s a multiplier effect.

Third thing: the technicals show a textbook-level “false breakout.”

From 1,255 down to 934, the drop exceeded 20%, and retail panicked, calling it a “double top.” But if you look closely—between 950–975, it gets tested repeatedly without breaking. The pullbacks shrink on volume while the rebounds expand on volume—this is a standard “demand zone accumulation” pattern.

The key is 1,050: a volume-backed breakout directly opens the 1,100–1,200 space; if it keeps dragging, then wait for a deeper ditch at 850–950.

Bull versus bear—you decide.

One side says:

Revenue up 346% YoY, Q4 guidance $50 billion, gross margin 85%

Management: “Supply shortage at least through 2027–2028”

16 blue-chip giants sign long-term deals, locking in $22 billion revenue; BofA target price 1,550

950–975 demand zone defended three times; technicals show a bottom structure

The other side says:

Down 20% from 1,255—captive holders need time to digest

Overcrowded trading in the sector; Put options show unusual activity

AI infrastructure cost concerns keep being hyped

If it breaks below 850, the trend needs to be reassessed

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 1,050–1,100 → 1,200–1,255 (prior all-time highs)

Support below: 950–975 → 850–900 (a deeper “golden pit”)

For short-term traders:

Test long with a light position around 985; stop out below 930; first target 1,050–1,100. Don’t add without a volume-backed breakout above 1,050; don’t chase—perpetual volatility is too high.

For mid-term investors:

Build positions in tranches from 850–950—this is the “value zone” recognized by institutions; targets are 1,500+ (BofA target price). The next big catalyst is the Q4 earnings report (late September).

For long-term believers:

The AI memory supercycle is only in Chapter 2; management even said themselves it’s “still early.” Target 2,000+ by end of 2027—the bet is that HBM demand surges and supply stays chronically tight.

Risk-control iron rule:

Risk per trade at 2–3% of total position; don’t let perpetual leverage exceed 3x. If it breaks below 850 and volume expands, exit first and stay on the sidelines.

MU now looks like NVDA in 2021—

99% of people think the “AI bubble” is about to burst, but the memory supercycle is only just beginning. #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 #夏日创作营 #GOOGL财报亮眼但盘后跌超3% $BTC $MU $NVDA