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At the opening ceremony of the International Congress of Mathematicians held today in Philadelphia, the Fields Prizes were officially announced, and two Chinese mathematicians, Deng Yu and Wang Hong, won the awards at the same time.
The Fields Prize is awarded once every four years and is known as the “Nobel Prize of the mathematics world.” This is the first time Chinese mathematicians have received the award, and there are two in one go. The two are classmates from Peking University, Class of 2007.
However, this award outcome was not a secret two weeks ago.
Someone found that on this conference’s official website, the schedule API page had not implemented data filtering, so with a single line of code, the entire list of awardees marked as “hidden” could be extracted.
Obviously, Polymarket’s markets smelled it and moved quickly.
Before the code was leaked, Polymarket had already opened trading. Wang Hong has been the odds leader since the market opened in January, rising from 60% to 89% along the way;
Deng Yu rose from 40% to 69%. After the code leak, the probabilities for the four awardees jumped directly to 98-99%.
For people in our circle, the most familiar part of this is: so-called “hidden information” was never truly hidden—there’s always a way to get it.