“Fed’s mouthpiece” speaks out: This time it’s really hard to guess

Nick Timiraos’s latest assessment—this July 28-29 FOMC meeting may be the most difficult to predict in recent years.
Five key variables:
Oil prices are back on the rise—inflation pressure has been reignited
Tariff risks are heating up—policy uncertainty adds more obstacles
Some officials shift toward rate hikes—the consensus to hold steady is starting to loosen
Market expectations jump—the probability of a rate hike in July rises from about 10% to about 33%
18 officials are deeply divided—half expect a rate hike, half think it’s unnecessary
Fed Chair Waller continues to stay quiet
Since taking office, he’s been extremely sparing with words, refusing any forward-looking guidance. Investors can only “guess with a mix of logic and guesswork” from remarks by other officials.
With long and short positions overlapping plus officials disagreeing plus the chair’s silence, it really is a rare “foggy situation” in recent years.