On July 23, Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, dubbed the “Federal Reserve megaphone,” said the Fed’s July 28–29 policy meeting will be one of the most difficult to predict in recent years. Oil prices have started rising again, risks from U.S. tariff policy are heating up, and some officials have publicly shifted to support rate hikes—together these factors are challenging the consensus of keeping rates unchanged.

Data from the CME Group show that market expectations for a July rate hike have risen from about 10% at the end of last weekend to about one third. The 18 Fed officials already have significant disagreement over whether rate hikes are needed during the year—half expect at least a 25-basis-point hike, while the other half believes no adjustment is necessary. After taking office, the new chair, Waller, has intentionally stayed silent, refusing to provide forward guidance, leaving investors to guess the policy direction blindly from remarks by other officials. #夏日创作营