The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 12 straight trading days, touching 5.15%, the longest record since 2007.

This isn’t just a technical fluctuation—it’s a structural shift. The market is now pricing the interest-rate endpoint as “higher for longer.”

Today, a report from Danske Bank has broken through this window paper, but the real killing blow is on the oil end: the Houthis attacked Saudi oil tankers, with Brent nearing $100, directly bringing the odds of a rate hike at next week’s FOMC back onto the table.

During this period, I’ve been emphasizing macro pressure all along, and the inflation logic chain is very clear. Oil is the mother of inflation—crude oil breaking above $100 means new upward pressure for the July CPI. As rate-hike pressure from the Fed increases, with a 5% risk-free yield and real yields turning positive, for Bitcoin—an asset with zero yield—carrying costs have already become too high to ignore.

Historical experience shows that when long-end U.S. Treasury yields break above prior highs and keep holding there, capital flows out of high-risk assets in one direction. This isn’t a linear retreat—it’s a stampede-style migration. Over the past two months, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury yields has deepened from -0.3 to -0.6, and this trend can only further reinforce.

A lot of brothers may not understand this piece of news. Simply put, it’s a major bearish bomb dropping out of nowhere.

Over the past few days, I’ve kept repeating the idea of going short—what’s being bet on is the opportunity at the end of the month and into next month.

Going forward, continue holding short positions. For brothers who don’t have any short orders yet, you can use a strategy of building positions in batches.

This isn’t a debate about the bottom—it’s an inevitable round of structural repricing. The combined effect of three factors—fragile liquidity, highly leveraged long positions, and external macro headwinds—can only point in one direction: continuing to probe lower. #BTC突破66000美元