#夏日创作营 Grayscale: If the Federal Reserve stops raising rates, Bitcoin may have already bottomed

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl wrote that there are currently mainly two views in the market about when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one follows the “four-year cycle,” and the other treats Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macro factors.
The “four-year cycle” view holds that the halving event remains the core driver of Bitcoin’s price cycle. Historically, Bitcoin typically bottoms about one year after the cycle top and around 2.5 years after the halving, with an average cumulative drawdown of about 80%. Following this pattern, Bitcoin this cycle may still fall further and form a bottom in September or October.
The other view is that Bitcoin’s price going forward will be driven more by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in Federal Reserve policy, similar to other major assets. In the past several Bitcoin bear markets, declines were usually accompanied by slowing economic growth or rising real interest rates. This drawdown also occurred amid strengthening expectations of rate hikes and a rise in real interest rates.
Pandl said he is more inclined to the macro-driven view. If the Federal Reserve stops raising rates and economic growth stays stable, Bitcoin’s price may already have bottomed. $BTC ‌