July Revelation — What Happened as the Market Moved From 58,000 to 66,000

Brothers, July’s market action is basically over.

At the start of the month, BTC got slammed as low as 58,035, and the market was filled with cries of misery; by month-end it stood above 66,000, with a rebound of more than 15%. In one month, an $8,000 range swing—from panic to indecision, from cutting losses to missing the opportunity.

This article won’t talk about how price moved that day. Let’s review what happened in July and the direction ahead.

I. July’s Starting Point: 58,000 — Who’s Selling?

July began brutally. After BTC broke below 60k at the end of June, on July 1 it directly smashed through 58,000, hitting the lowest level since September 2024. The fear index hit 11-12, even lower than during the LUNA crash in 2022.

Who’s selling? Two main forces.

First, the ETF. In June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of about $4.5 billion, the worst month ever.

Second, Strategy—global’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin company authorized the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of BTC in early July to replenish its cash reserves. Although it only actually sold 3,588 BTC and raised about $216 million, the “never sell coins” pledge was broken—the shock to market consensus was far bigger than the actual selling pressure.

The main theme in early July was digesting these two negative factors.

Price repeatedly tested the 58,000-60,000 range; ADX fell below 20, and the Bollinger Band width shrank to below 1%. The market entered a sideways state where “whoever moves dies.”

II. Where Did the Turning Point Come From? CPI and ETFs

On July 11, the U.S. CPI data was released. Core CPI was 2.6% year-over-year, -0.4% month-over-month, the lowest since 2020. The probability of a rate hike in July dropped sharply from 40%+ to 10%-13%.

Immediately after that, ETF capital began flowing back—net inflows of $75 million in the week from July 13-17, and then the third week of July saw a single-week net inflow exceed $1.2 billion.

Two important structural changes happened in liquidity:

In May, 70% of the trading days of Bitcoin ETF transactions closed with net outflows;
In June, that ratio rose to 90%;
But in July, only 33% of trading days recorded net outflows.

This shift—from “almost selling every day” to “most of the time buying”—is extremely critical.

Price rebounded from 58,000 to 62,000, then pushed all the way above 66,000, starting to pressure the key level at around 68,000.

III. Why Is 68,000 Important?

Around $68,000 is the average purchase price of Bitcoin investors over the past five months.

What does that mean?

Many who bought above $68,000 are still underwater even now. The first time price returns to breakeven, these people will likely choose to sell to stop the loss. This supply pressure created by “freed from being trapped” has historically often led to repeated tug-of-war at key resistance levels.

$68,000 is also the high from mid-June of BTC. Previous rebounds failed around this area, and then price fell back below 58,000.

If this time it can break through effectively and hold, the market’s structure will change in nature;
If it can’t get through, it may just be another fake breakout.

IV. Three Variables to Watch

First, the CLARITY Act
On July 21, there was major progress— the White House and the Senate reached an agreement on the moral provisions, and the odds of the bill passing increased significantly.
If it can pass before the August recess, the crypto industry will for the first time have a comprehensive federal regulatory framework, which would be structurally boosting for institutional confidence.

Second, oil prices
Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent to $87-91. High oil prices mean high inflation. The probability of a rate hike at the Fed meeting on July 28-29 has already risen back from 10% to 34%. The biggest uncertainty at the macro level is still this.

Third, spot demand
CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s 30-day spot demand is still -170k BTC.
ETF money is coming in, but the spot market is still selling—these offset each other. A true trend reversal requires seeing spot demand turn from negative to positive.

V. The Next Judgement

July rebounded from 58,000 to 66,000, completing the “oversold repair” phase.

The key question now is: can this rebound turn into a reversal?

The bias is slightly bullish, but around 68,000 there will likely be repeated pullbacks.

The AIX system’s strategy has always been to wait for the pullback and not chase highs:
Chasing longs above 66,000 isn’t great on risk-reward;
Wait for a pullback into the 63,000-64,000 zone, then act after signal confirmation.

Market institutions have extremely divergent expectations:
- Standard Chartered keeps a year-end target of $100k;
- Citi lowered to 82,000;
- NYDIG provides an extreme stress test scenario of 38,000-39,000.

With such a huge split, it means the direction is not clear.

But the 30-day ETF outflow ratio has fallen from 90% to 33%—this data is real.

The trend is improving, but 68,000 is the watershed.
Before a breakout, longing on pullbacks is safer than chasing highs.
After the breakout, once it’s confirmed that it holds, then enter.

Let’s chat in the comments: $68,000—do you think this time it can get through?

My personal view only, not investment advice. The market is risky; take responsibility for yourself.

$BTC #比特币 #行情分析 #美联储 #AI交易