#夏日创作营 Well-known trader: Bitcoin has completed a five-wave correction, and the structure suggests the bottom may have already formed

Well-known trader Killa said in a post that Bitcoin’s bear-market cycles typically complete a 5-wave correction and form two important highs.
The first high often appears after the top during the first significant rebound—what many refer to as the “complacency high” when the market widely believes the bull market has returned—after which prices usually continue to probe lower and print new lows. He pointed out that similar structures appeared in the 2014, 2022, and 2026 cycles. After the complacency high is formed, the market typically sees a “dead cat bounce,” establishing a temporary bottom; as market sentiment deteriorates and short positions become concentrated, a short squeeze then drives the price higher, and the ultimate bottom is usually formed after the second important retest. Killa believes that BTC has already swept the bottom created by the “dead cat bounce” and has completed a five-wave correction structure similar to past cycles.
From a structural perspective, the correction wave has already ended, and the low point may already be in. However, he remains cautious about the timing cycle. In past bear markets, it usually took about 365 days to form the final bottom; in this cycle, if the low has already appeared, it would have taken only about 260 days—around 100 days earlier than historical cycles. The outlook is still 50-50, but compared with significantly printing new lows, there’s a higher chance that subsequent higher lows will form. $BTC ‌