SpaceX has fallen below its IPO price.

Before listing, almost everyone was swept up by grand narratives: Mars migration, Starlink global networking, space computing power, the largest IPO in human history—countless people rushed to get the entry ticket. In the early days after listing, the stock surged relentlessly, as if buying in meant betting on humanity’s future.

In just over a month, the market flipped sharply downward. It officially broke below the $135 IPO price, with a pullback from the highs of nearly 40%. A market cap of tens of billions evaporated out of thin air. Many attribute the drop simply to the Starship test flight being temporarily halted, but that was only the fuse; the real core issue had long been on the table.

It’s undeniable that SpaceX is a sufficiently great company. Falcon rockets and Starlink genuinely break the traditional spaceflight landscape, and once Starship matures, it will completely rewrite space transportation costs. But a great enterprise ≠ a suitable investment.

Looking back now, in the peak valuation, most of the premium paid for “future fantasies.” The company only generates steady cash flow from its Starlink business, while Starship R&D and AI projects continue to burn through huge amounts of money. The high valuation front-loaded the growth expectations for the next decade or more. The capital market may briefly pay up for dreams, but it won’t keep charging a premium for stories that are out of reach indefinitely.

There’s another point that retail investors often overlook: under the special equity structure, Musk holds the vast majority of voting power. The company’s strategy prioritizes his space vision, leaving ordinary secondary-market investors with almost no say. If long-term R&D keeps consuming capital, shareholders’ interests often end up lower on the priority list.

This has been a lesson for everyone: never treat faith as a reason to buy. It’s completely normal to love aerospace and admire Musk’s boldness, but investing must be separated from emotion. No matter how vast the prospects of the track, once the price moves far away from fundamentals, a correction is only a matter of time.

When things are euphoric, everyone turns bullish; when panic hits, everyone turns bearish. As for whether this is the bottom now, no one can answer. Just keep reminding yourself: yearning for stars and oceans is emotion—protecting principal is the first rule of investing. #夏日创作营