Tonight, the U.S. will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 (ten thousand people)

Yue Jie’s subjective read: Tonight’s jobless claims data is very likely to come in above expectations (>235k)

The market’s initial jobless claims have been on the low side for two consecutive weeks, affected by holiday interference. The expectation of 230k may be a bit conservative, and the actual deviation could be even larger. With the current FOMC blackout period lacking official comments to offset it, after the data is released the market may overreact: if it’s above expectations, it weakens sharply—Big BTC could surge in an instant, but then profits will likely be taken back; a spike then pullback is the most likely scenario. If it’s below expectations (jobs stronger), it could dump quickly toward key support, but options barriers and buy-side support may help it rebound fast.

In terms of strategy, don’t put full size on before the data. If it comes in above expectations, wait for a retracement back to the support area and then try a small long position; set the stop-loss below support, target the previous high, but never hold overnight. If it comes in below expectations, don’t bottom-pick—if key support breaks, cut down the position to below 20%, keep total exposure within 30%, and don’t use high leverage. For crypto, an above-expectations print boosts altcoins in the short term but increases volatility; a below-expectations print leads to rising demand for stablecoins and a recovery in BTC’s market share.

Yue Jie’s view: I’m leaning above expectations (employment weakening). For the crypto market, it’s a short-term positive; tonight is just a stress test, not a turning point. The real direction will be judged by next week’s FOMC—save your bullets and then strike with force after the result lands. $BTC $ETH #Gate事件合约首发狂欢