The evening initial jobless claims data can be used to make a judgment based on the following scenarios:


If the released figure is below 208k:
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits falls further, and the employment market performs better than expected. The market will lower expectations related to rate cuts; the US dollar and Treasury yields will rise accordingly. Gold, crypto assets, and the US stock market could face pressure and weaken more easily. In the short term, there is a high likelihood of a downward trend.

If the released figure is in the 208k to 212k range:
Employment data weakens slightly but overall still shows resilience. Monetary policy expectations will not change materially. Various assets are likely to maintain narrow-range consolidation, with limited market volatility. The trading board will continue to follow the existing technical trend.

If the released figure is above 212k:
Unemployment benefit claims increase more than expected. The employment outlook cools noticeably, and the market will place a greater emphasis on expectations for the Fed to cut rates ahead of schedule. The US dollar trend will face downward pressure and weaken; this is bullish for gold, cryptocurrencies, and US stock prices. In the short term, there is a possibility of a new round of a rally.
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