#夏日创作营 #伊朗连炸美军多个基地#The US military has been carrying out airstrikes on Iran for 12 straight days, but BTC keeps getting steadier?

If this kind of geopolitical conflict had happened a few years ago, the market likely would have fallen long ago. But this time, the market’s reaction has become increasingly muted.

The reason is simple: the market doesn’t trade the news—it trades expectations. At the beginning of the outbreak, people were worried about whether the war would escalate into a full-scale conflict. Whether the Strait of Hormuz would be closed. Whether global energy supplies would be hit. So risk assets fell first.

But as time went on—even though the US military has launched airstrikes for the 12th day in a row—the market found one thing: the conflict is still mainly concentrated on military targets and has not further evolved into a full-scale war. Then capital started repricing risk assets again.

However, this doesn’t mean the risk has disappeared. What really needs vigilance isn’t the nth airstrike, but whether new variables emerge. For example: whether Iran directly expands the scope of its retaliations, whether the Strait of Hormuz is truly affected, whether the US escalates military actions further, and whether international crude oil surges again rapidly.

If these factors don’t change significantly, the market’s sensitivity to similar news may continue to decline.