7.23 evening trading thoughts

Tonight’s top priority: the US weekly initial jobless claims data
The Fed is in a quiet period right now, and officials are not allowed to speak. This employment data will directly affect the market’s expectations for rate cuts.
If the number of unemployed people is higher than expected, it indicates employment is weakening. The market will expect rate cuts, which is bullish for risk assets like big pie (BTC);
If the number of unemployed people is lower than expected, employment remains strong. Rate-cut expectations will be pushed back. The US dollar and US Treasuries will strengthen, which will suppress the big pie行情.
Reminder: don’t place a heavy position in advance to赌 the data outcome. Waiting until the data is released and the direction is clear is the safest move.

Next, about the bill news: in the medium to long term it’s definitely a positive, but the short-term upside has already been priced in earlier. Chasing up blindly at bad levels has very low cost-effectiveness. With the high-interest-rate environment still ongoing, it’s not easy to sustain a continuous big rally.

Big pie reverse on 66300-66800, watch 64900-64400
Second pie reverse on 1950-1990, watch 1890-1850

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