Goldman Sachs: IPO surge hits a record high, but warning signs haven’t flashed yet

Deep Tide TechFlow message: On July 23, according to Trendway Research, Goldman Sachs’ July 20 Top of Mind report pointed out that in 2026, U.S. IPO financing has already exceeded $125 billion, breaking the full-year record of 2021. It is expected that the full year will exceed $200 billion. However, the number of IPOs is only about 60, far below the bubble periods of 400 in 1999 and 250 in 2021, mainly driven by a small number of mega-cap technology companies. Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equities strategist Snider believes that late-cycle warning signals have not yet appeared; the household sector has become a net buyer, and the annualized IPO financing amount is only about 1% of the S&P 500 market value, suggesting that the market’s ability to absorb supply is being underestimated. University of Florida professor Ritter noted that high issuance-volume forecasts imply low returns, but the signal accuracy is only slightly higher than random (about 52%). Acadian fund manager Lamont warned that the issuance wave is one of the bubble’s “Four Horsemen,” but it may signal the start of a bubble rather than its end; as of now, the first-day gains have not shown any extreme speculation signals.

All three experts believe that the number of IPOs is moderate, valuations have not reached bubble levels, and first-day gains have not gotten out of control; the truly dangerous warning signals have not yet emerged. Snider expects that in 2026, companies will repurchase about $1.3 trillion, enough to offset new supply. If there is a major shift in the AI narrative or corporate earnings, the market and IPO outlook will change accordingly.