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Many people are saying they missed out on this storage-sector rally, but did you really miss it as badly as Li Lu?
Li Lu’s Himalaya Capital started building a position in Micron from 2019, buying 15 million shares at an average price of around $50. He then fully exited in 23 Q2, earning about 25%. What he didn’t expect was that, driven by AI, Micron later surged to as high as $1,260—missing out by nearly 15 times!
Li Lu is deeply trusted by Munger. He is the only external asset manager for the Munger family assets, and is widely hailed as “the third generation representative of value investing thinking.”
As a value investing master, the logic behind what he sold back then wasn’t foolish.
The core thesis for investing in Micron was that Samsung, Hynix, and Micron formed a three-way balance. After years of brutal industry shakeouts, the remaining players would rationally manage capacity and not keep slaughtering each other just to chase market share.
But in 2023, Samsung suddenly changed strategy and ramped up production again to grab market share. Micron’s cash flow deteriorated, and the original core assumptions were broken.
So he sold.
No one expected that afterward, AI would explode and HBM demand would directly rewrite the entire storage industry’s supply-and-demand relationship.
Even if the three companies ramped up production crazily, they still couldn’t catch up with demand. Cyclical stocks that used to compete and slash each other turned, overnight, into shovel sellers in the AI era.