#夏日创作营 Has Bitcoin (BTC) really finished falling? Have the altcoins bottomed out, too?

Before each bear market bottom arrives, the market always falls into two opposing camps. Bitcoin is currently in exactly this kind of contradictory situation: the technical structure has started showing signals that the downside is bottoming out, but the time cycle appears to contradict historical patterns. So, has this round of selloff already ended? We objectively break it down by analyzing three complete bull-bear cycles.

Revisiting the three full adjustment cycles of 2014, 2022, and 2026, all three formed highly similar downtrend structures. After completing the first round of pullback at the complacent peak when market sentiment is extremely optimistic, the market briefly rebounds and lulls investors, only to fall again and set new stage lows. Even in 2018, when the correction pace was relatively mild—without printing lower prices—there were multiple deep retests throughout the entire period. It repeatedly drained bulls’ confidence. This “rally to lure longs, then keep probing lower” logic has never changed.

By historical time statistics, across the past two full bear markets, it took an average of about 365 days to chisel from the bull market’s peak down to the eventual major bottom. It takes a full year of washing out to fully clear market floating supply and digest the high-level trapped positions. But compared with the current market, if today’s low is the bottom of this cycle, the drop from the top has taken only 260 days—nearly 100 days shorter than the historical average cycle. This massive time gap is the biggest point of contention in the market. According to traditional cycle theory, when time hasn’t run its course, bottoming out is unlikely to happen in one step—this is also the key basis for many traders insisting on the possibility of a second dip.

However, purely applying historical cycles has clear limitations: the market environment is no longer what it used to be. In the early days, Bitcoin was dominated by retail trading, with thin liquidity and long downturn cycles. Today, spot ETFs are routine, institutional capital is deeply deployed, and derivatives quickly absorb market leverage. Capital inflow and outflow efficiency has improved significantly. The shortening of market cycles is a long-term trend, so it’s not something you can mechanically conclude that a bear market must last 365 days before reaching the bottom.

From the technical structure perspective, this five-wave downtrend structure in this round has fully played out. The prior interim lows have been revisited and confirmed by price. Bear momentum has continued to weaken. In terms of pattern, it satisfies the basic conditions for a bottom to take shape. Based on multi-dimensional indicator inference, the probability of a major further breakdown below the current lows is relatively low. The market is more likely to enter a long period of range-bound consolidation, forming a bottoming structure with “higher lows”—each pullback lifts support levels gradually, slowly grinding down market panic.

For ordinary investors, there’s no need to be extremely bearish or blindly bottom-fish. A structural bottom doesn’t mean the bull market starts immediately. During the consolidation and bottoming phase, bulls and bears keep tugging each other, and short-term volatility risk still remains. A shortened cycle also doesn’t mean an instant reversal. Repeatedly pressing and confirming the bottom is a necessary process.

History can be used as reference, but it can’t be copied exactly. Next, the key thing to watch is the strength of support along the lower edge of the trading range. As long as it doesn’t print new lows again and the lows keep stepping higher, it will further confirm that the bear market is nearing its end. If it again breaks through key support on increasing volume, it would mean the bottom still hasn’t arrived and patience is needed to wait for the next adjustment window.

Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile. This article is only for analytical purposes of market logic and does not constitute any investment advice.