The Revolutionary Guard made a move this time.

On July 22, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched an attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan, destroying the U.S. “THAAD” system radar and the “Patriot” air defense system, and also setting the fuel depot on fire. From the U.S.-Iran airstrikes in February to now, the two sides have been clashing for nearly five months, and oil prices have surged by more than $90.

Under the usual script, once a geopolitical conflict of this scale breaks out, BTC should at least drop by 5 points. But what about this time? BTC has held steady around 65,800, with a decline of less than 1% within 24 hours.

This reminds me of a phrase: desensitization to risk.

The market has developed resistance to the “U.S.-Iran conflict” storyline. After almost five months of fighting, the early panic has basically burned out, and most of those who were going to run have already run. Each escalation brings less and less shock—this is a classic case of “geopolitical risk fatigue.”

There’s another variable that can’t be ignored: ETFs. Spot ETFs have had net inflows for two straight weeks of about $273 million. Institutional money is continuing to enter the market and propping up the base. This kind of structural buy-side demand naturally hedges against retail panic—you sell, I buy.

But I won’t relax my guard because of this. BTC not falling doesn’t mean geopolitical risk has disappeared. With oil prices pushing up inflation expectations and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates still above 40%, that’s the real macro pressure.

In the short term, BTC will most likely keep grinding in the 65,000–66,500 range. Any upside space will require fresh catalysts, while downside support is also solid for now. At this level, watching more and moving less is more reliable than chasing rallies and killing trades. $BTC $ETH #特朗普警告9月政府停摆