Short-term holders have been making losses for 9 months straight, 68,800 marks the key for a bull market to return—but who will take the offer at 68,000?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said that Bitcoin’s short-term holders have recorded losses for nine consecutive months, which is a typical feature of a bear market. The short-term holders’ cost basis spread is $68,800, while BTC is currently trading around $65,000, meaning this portion of positions is bearing roughly a 4% unrealized loss. Darkfost believes reclaiming $68,800 is crucial for restoring confidence in the short-term market.

What does losing for 9 months in a row imply?

Sustained losses for short-term holders indicate the market lacks a “money-making effect,” and incoming capital is getting trapped. Historically, short-term holders turning profitable is one of the necessary conditions for a bull market to start—when short-term coins are broadly in profit, market sentiment can shift from pessimism to optimism.

$68,800 is a number worth paying attention to, but it’s not something to chase.

$68,800 is the average cost line for short-term holders. This means short-term BTC traders who bought from October 2024 to now are, overall, in a floating loss state. To break the bear-market structure, BTC needs to reclaim and hold above $68,800 to get this cohort of coins out of their loss—then market sentiment may shift from “waiting for breakeven” to “waiting to buy on pullbacks,” forming a positive feedback loop.

Currently BTC is around $65,800, leaving about 4.5% room from $68,800. This distance isn’t large, but without new catalysts, a breakout likely needs volume confirmation.

Personal take: $68,800 is the bull-bear dividing line, not a short-term target level.

If BTC can effectively hold above $68,800 and stay there, market sentiment will be significantly repaired, and the next target will be 70,000+. If repeated attempts to break $68,800 fail, the probability of a pullback to $65,000 and even $63,500 will increase.

For the current price action, in the $65,000–$68,800 range, both upside and downside are possible. The key variable is liquidity—whether ETF inflows can stay consistent and whether macro expectations improve will determine whether BTC touches $68,800 or continues to look for support around $63,500. $BTC #夏日创作营