July 23 BTC outlook

Yesterday’s recap: the initial bearish move and waiting for a break below 65,500 was correct—however, after it broke, I wanted to wait for a pullback to go long up to 67,300, but I didn’t get the chance—66,500-67,500 had strong resistance plus a 4h top fractal, and the bulls simply didn’t have the strength. This part should be counted as a “logic missed the momentum decay,” acknowledged.
Today’s chart: the 4h top fractal has been confirmed, the downward stroke extends, the MACD forms a hard cross below the zero line, and 65,500 has been poked multiple times as support but it’s thinning out; above, 65,700 is the observation line for the post-break pullback, and 66,200-66,500 has become new resistance. The news flow doesn’t help the longs: the ETF has seen six straight inflows, but the price isn’t moving—this suggests existing liquidity is just rotating; together with WTI surging above 86+ and Brent breaking 94, before the 7/28 FOMC, the US 10Y is at 4.66%, so risk-asset appetite is being suppressed—therefore today’s bias stays slightly bearish.
The key to watch today is still 65,500. The long side has limited room, so don’t “hold the position” — but once 65,500 breaks down, it’s possible to revisit around 64,500.
$BTC