July 23 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report丨Upside momentum is insufficient—should I keep shorting at these levels?

《Jiangfeng Trading Diary》第10期: Candlesticks and indicators are only the result of price, not the cause of price!

In Episode 10, it mentioned shorting Bitcoin around 66,900; later, after the rebound reached around 66,924, it started to pull back, which basically matched the earlier thinking. So now that the price has topped and started to retrace, how should we position?



Now the geopolitical situation is turbulent and unstable, causing Brent crude oil prices to surge and inflation to keep accelerating. According to CME’s FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in July has jumped to 33.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 66.3%. The expected hike from just the past two days, which was 13%, has quickly surged—this will suppress price upside again.



The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September has fallen to 23.2%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike has risen to 54.9%, and the probability of a 50-basis-point hike has risen to 21.9%. This suggests that the likelihood of a September hike is still quite high, so I’ve been reminding everyone to make decisions cautiously!



Coming back to the chart, Jiangfeng still leans toward trading the recent rate-hike expectations first. We’ll continue to use the high-short approach to keep probing until early October, when we’ll adjust based on the specific situation.

Today’s aggressive strategy:

▶️ETH: short around 1935～1967
🏁 target 1890～1850
🏁 target 1810～1760
🏁 target 1725

▶️BTC: short around 66200～66900
🏁 target: 65000～64000
🏁 target: 62700～62000

These views are for reference only. It’s recommended to participate with low position size. When it’s truly time to bottom-fish, I’ll accompany everyone to shift the mindset together! Now we still need to wait patiently!

$BTC ‌$ETH ‌#Gate事件合约首发狂欢 #夏日创作营 #GOOGL财报亮眼但盘后跌超3%