The US military has been striking Iran for 12 consecutive days, yet BTC is getting steadier?

If this happened a few years ago, markets might have crashed long ago in the face of a geopolitical conflict at this level. But this time, the market’s reaction has become increasingly muted.
The reason is simple: markets don’t trade the news—they trade expectations. When the conflict first broke out, everyone was worried about whether the war would escalate into something all-out, whether the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, and whether global energy supply would be hit. That’s why risk assets fell first.
But as time went on, even with the US launching airstrikes for the 12th day in a row, the market found one thing: the conflict remained largely focused on military targets and did not further evolve into full-scale war. Then capital started repricing risk assets.
However, this doesn’t mean risk has disappeared. What you really need to watch isn’t the nth airstrike, but whether any new variables emerge—for example: whether Iran directly expands the scope of its retaliation, whether the Strait of Hormuz is truly affected, whether the US further escalates military actions, or whether international crude oil spikes rapidly again.
If these factors don’t change materially, the market’s sensitivity to similar headlines may continue to decline. #美伊冲突