Goldman Markets Quick Take: The semiconductor rebound uptrend can likely continue, as capital is moving back into storage and equipment

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On July 23, Goldman’s trading desk released a market view, saying the semiconductor sector’s current rebound could have the potential to extend.
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Data shows that since mid-June, many hedge funds have chosen to reduce holdings: about 80% of the positions in global semiconductor and equipment-related stocks that were built at the start of the year were taken off for profits. The prior situation of capital crowding into the same trades has eased significantly. In the last one or two days, funds have moved back in to position again, and institutions believe this buying momentum could continue.
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Capital mainly flowed back into two directions with the largest pullback earlier: memory chips and semiconductor equipment. Investors are focusing on storage-related names such as STX, WDC, MU, and SanDisk, as well as equipment leaders like AMAT, ASML, and LRCX. The price action on the board also matches the direction of the funds. After the AI chip segment saw sustained adjustments, storage names such as Micron, SanDisk, and Seagate rebounded notably, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also strengthened in tandem, repairing higher.

From positioning data, the semiconductor sector’s overall exposure remains at a high level, but the earlier overheating and overcrowding have already improved. The net allocation ratio for global semiconductor and equipment names was about 10% at the start of the year, climbed to a peak phase high of 24% in June, and has since fallen to 19%. Meanwhile, the exposure of US-listed related names dropped from 14% on June 6 to 11%.
Although current positioning has not yet reached a range with high valuation attractiveness, the phase of large-scale de-risking is basically nearing its end. As long as companies’ upcoming earnings and expectations for AI computing-capacity spending do not weaken further, capital will most likely flow back first into the specific sub-sectors that previously fell the most and still have solid fundamentals.
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To judge whether the rebound can sustain, you can focus on three points: whether cloud providers such as Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon continue to raise their AI-related investment plans; whether pricing for memory products and order intake can hold steady to support profit expectations for companies like Micron and SanDisk; and whether semiconductor equipment orders keep landing, validating that the logic behind AI data center expansion has not changed.