📉 IBM Q2 revenue rose only 1%, mainframe sales plunged 42%, and its full-year outlook was lowered

Revenue was $17.2 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.93, both coming in below expectations. Z-series mainframe revenue fell 42% year over year, dragging the infrastructure business down 7%. The expected full-year revenue growth was cut from “over 5%” to “4%-5%”.
But after-hours the stock price rose about 3%—a week earlier it had issued an earnings warning, so the negative news was absorbed in advance. The software business was relatively steady, up 5% year over year, suggesting the market is pricing in the logic of “hardware hitting bottom + software taking over,” rather than focusing solely on the near-term numbers.
Is the mainframe drop structural or cyclical? If enterprise IT spending continues shifting toward cloud and AI, IBM’s hardware dependence is a long-term risk. Whether the next quarter’s software growth can stay above 5% is the key test of how solid the transformation really is.
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