#夏日创作营 Crude oil breaks above $95. What people should really worry about isn’t the oil price itself, but inflation

However, you don’t need to be overly pessimistic yet.

What truly determines the market isn’t how much the oil price rises in a single day, but whether it can hold steady at high levels consecutively.

If oil is only surging due to Middle East tensions, and then quickly pulls back after a short-term spike, the market will digest it soon.

But if crude oil stays at more than $90–$100 for the long term, inflation pressure will heat up again, and the Fed’s rate-cut timetable may change once more. That’s the real thing to be wary of.

Recently, the market has had two forces at work: on one side, US spot BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for 6 straight trading days, and institutional capital is still actively allocating;

on the other side, oil prices are rising, geopolitics is repeatedly shifting, and expectations for rate cuts are being disturbed.

This means the market has entered a phase where macro bearish factors are battling against institutional buy-side demand.

Next, more important than direction is to see which force is stronger.