7.23 Morning Thoughts

At the highs, the upside momentum continues to decay, compounded by a rise in risk-averse sentiment in the external market, so the overall market structure is weak with choppy consolidation. Any bullish rebound in the short term is only a technical correction; the trading approach should prioritize selling the rallies to avoid chasing the highs, without blindly going long.

Big brother is at 66,000 now, ETH current price is 1,930;
In the early morning, the market liquidity is thin, needle-poke volatility risk is elevated, and the short-term rally’s ability to sustain the move is insufficient, making it hard for upside momentum to continue.

Capital/flows: There is a lack of momentum-chasing funds at these levels, overhead sell pressure keeps being released, and the ability of bulls to absorb weakens;

Asset differentiation: Big brother’s support is more resilient, while second brother offers a larger bearish retracement and more downside room, but the pullback is limited;

Trend judgment: There is no clear signal of a strong reversal yet; all rallies are merely repair/mean-reversion moves, and the cost-effectiveness of chasing the highs is extremely low.
Big brother: Sell around 66,500-66,800
Target: around 65,200-64,800
Second brother: Sell around 1,960-1,980
Target: around 1,880-1,850#BTC突破66000美元 $BTC $ETH