Storage chip stocks—should you rush in now or wait?

I just pulled a research report, and there’s plenty of actionable stuff in it. Here’s a breakdown for everyone.
First, the core view: Storage chip stocks’ valuations are already close to a reasonable range—but…
The market’s expectations for profits in 2027 may be at clear risk of being significantly overestimated, and the downside pressure from the cycle downturn hasn’t fully played out yet.
Evidence in detail:
1、DRAM price hikes are clearly stepping on the brakes
Quarter-over-quarter increases in traditional DRAM contract prices:
2026 Q1: 93%-98%
2026 Q2: 58%-63%
TrendForce expects 2026 Q3 to further slow down to 13%-18%
You can see the pace of price increases visibly narrowing.
2、HBM isn’t that attractive anymore either
In 2026, the annual contract price increase for HBM actually lagged traditional DRAM.
Even more striking: In Q1, HBM’s profitability level even failed to match 64GB DDR5 RDIMM.
3、Supply-side capacity is quietly increasing
Global traceable DRAM production capacity is expected to reach about 2.1 million chips per month by the end of 2026.
Also, CXMT has already started sending samples, and TSMC has also moved into the HBM4 base die and packaging stages.
That means there will be more players, and the supply side is no longer a “scarcity” story.
4、The biggest expectation gap just arrived
Market consensus: Storage companies’ 2027 EPS should grow 36%-40%
But TrendForce estimates: Unit supply growth is only 15%-20%
The gap here is really not small—are the profit expectations a bit too “optimistic”?
5、What do institutions think?
TS Lombard believes that for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, the current stock prices have already priced in a scenario where:
2027 earnings are 40%-50% lower than the market consensus forecast.
In other words, the market itself may have already quietly “discounted” that optimistic expectation.
Overall: With this round of storage chip price-hike logic, it’s now time to stay calm and observe. Timing the high-low rotation in cyclical stocks has always been a technical game.