Technical Analysis of Solana: Short-Term Recovery With a Key Resistance Looming

$SOL ‌
Market Overview

SOL managed to hold above the vital demand zone at $76.70–$77.00, with short-term moving averages reclaiming. However, the broader trend remains under pressure from longer-term averages.

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📊 Moving Average Analysis

Average Price Indication
20 EMA $76.78 ✅ Bought up
50 EMA $76.74 ✅ Bought up
100 EMA $80.40 ⛔ Key resistance
200 EMA $93.58 ⛔ Major resistance

Conclusion: The short-term structure supports buyers, but the bearish trend stays dominant until the 100 EMA is breached.

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📐 Key Fibonacci Levels

· 0.236 Fibonacci: $104.02 — The price is still below it, confirming the bearish structure remains intact on higher timeframes.
· Demand zone: $76.70–$77.00 — Holding against selling pressure.
· Resistance area: $77.40–$77.70 — An immediate obstacle to upside.

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🎯 Potential Upside Targets

1. $77.70 — Immediate breakout
2. $78.50 — Mid resistance
3. $80.40 — Break above the 100 EMA (pivot)
4. $82.20 — Upside extension

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⚠️ Bearish Scenario

· Breaking $76.70 weakens the current recovery.
· A drop to $75.40 invalidates the bullish scenario and brings a retest of prior lows.

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🧠 Smart Money Flow Reading (ICT)

· June lows liquidity was swept, with price stabilizing around a short-term FVG.
· Price is approaching a potential sell-order block, where selling pressure may appear.
· Confirming a trend reversal requires MSS followed by a daily close above $80.40.

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📉 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

· Current value: 52.84
· Above 50 = a slight momentum edge for buyers.
· Hitting 60–70 strengthens bullish continuation.
· Falling below 50 signals buyer weakness.

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🔑 Level Summary

Resistances:

$77.70 → $78.50 → $80.40 (100 EMA) → $82.20

Supports:

$76.70 → $76.40 → $75.40 (key demand zone)

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📌 Final Outlook

SOL is currently recovering supported by short-term moving averages and a positive RSI, but the broader trend has not reversed yet.

✅ Staying above $76.70** keeps the recovery intact.
✅ **A break above $80.40** could open the path toward $87.00–$93.50.
❌ Losing $76.70** returns momentum to sellers toward **$75.40.

Overall Bias: Neutral to bullish in the short term, until the broader trend reversal is confirmed.

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