📊 Three layers of drivers behind Bitcoin’s rebound: short squeezes, leverage, and ETFs—but spot is missing

CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom’s data breakdown is worth a closer look: Bitcoin rebounded from $64,000 to $66,000, but the driving forces are not balanced.
1️⃣ Short squeeze kicks in: From July 18-19, the funding rate turned negative, forcing shorts to close, triggering the first wave of gains.
2️⃣ Leverage funds take the baton: Open interest surged from $21.2 billion to $23.0 billion, setting a record; nearly all new positions are leverage.
3️⃣ Slow ETF reflow: On July 20, net inflows were $271 million (IBIT accounted for $116.5 million), but the scale is insufficient to reverse the ongoing cooling in spot trading volume.
Key contradiction: Spot trading volume has remained lackluster since April, and stablecoin net inflows are negative, indicating that real buying demand has not returned. The current rally is largely propped up by leverage; if momentum weakens, rapid deleveraging could trigger a noticeable pullback.
Two indicators to watch closely: ① whether open interest keeps expanding or starts to decline; ② whether spot trading volume can see a substantive rebound.
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