August 6: SPCX’s initial shareholders will be able to sell their shares

**Key one-sentence conclusion**

Starlink remains profitable on its own, but SpaceX【on a consolidated reporting basis overall continues to post losses】

**Breakdown of financial-report facts (public prospectus data)**

1）✅Starlink (Starlink, Connectivity segment)
The only profitable segment
2025 full year: operating profit of $4.42 billion
2026 Q1: operating profit of $1.19 billion, continuing to generate cash steadily

2）❌Two major loss-making businesses continue to consume Starlink profits
① Space launch segment (mainly Starship R&D) continues to incur losses
② xAI AI business: massive capital expenditures, with losses of an extremely large scale

3）Overall consolidated results
2025 full year: GAAP net loss of $4.94 billion
2026 Q1: net loss for the quarter of $4.276 billion

👉Simple way to understand it: The money Starlink earns isn’t enough to cover the Starship + xAI spending, so the group has not achieved overall profitability.

**Key risk points directly related to the stock price**

1. The market’s valuation of SPCX is based on a bet that: Starlink will continue high growth; xAI monetization will materialize later; Starship will significantly reduce launch costs; and the group will ultimately turn profitable.
At present, it’s only a set of expectations—nothing has been implemented yet.

2. The Q2 earnings report on August 4 is the top priority—you must keep a close watch on:
① the number of new Starlink users and ARPU (revenue per user; currently slowly declining)
② whether overall capital expenditures expand further
③ whether losses continue to widen

If the Q2 report loss exceeds expectations + on August 6, large-scale unlocks and share-sale sell pressure are concentrated and released, the stock price pressure will be very evident.