🌍 Macro: Risk appetite is rebounding, but the interest-rate side hasn’t eased

Germany’s July ZEW economic sentiment came in at 26.3 (forecast 17.5, prior 10.5), significantly above expectations. Eurozone ZEW rose to 23.4 (prior 9.5) → European stocks closed higher across the board: DAX +0.61%, STOXX 50 +0.90%, FTSE 100 +0.55%. In the UK, the June unemployment rate was 4.4% (prior 4.5%), and public sector net borrowing was £15.99 billion (forecast £18 billion)—both beat expectations.

In the US: ADP weekly employment increased by 16.5 thousand (prior figure revised to 19.25 thousand), and Redbook retail year-on-year rose 7.8% (prior 8.2%)—a mild cooling, not a turn. But rates didn’t follow: 10Y US Treasuries at 4.63% (+3bp), and the US dollar index at 101.14 (+0.15%). Jupiter Asset Management explicitly said “rising two-year real yields boosted the US dollar,” and has already moved its position from US Treasuries to European bonds. VIX 17.17 (-7.94%), with fear fading quickly.
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