Rate cuts, Pectra, Germany sell pressure—everything is out in the open

Only use today’s confirmed facts as a projection; calibrate yourselves accordingly

First, the conclusion: the rate-cut expectation is out in the open, Pectra is out in the open, and Germany sell pressure is also out in the open. Under “everything out in the open,” there are no secrets—only position management.

All of the following are facts confirmed today; no speculative data is added:

I. Macro
The probability of a Fed rate cut in September rises to 78%, and the U.S. dollar index weakens.

II. Policy
Harris’s team has been reported to have had contacts with executives in the crypto industry, setting the tone for the Democratic Party’s August crypto policy platform. Trump previously promised to “move all BTC mining companies to the United States.”

III. BTC supply
The German government wallet transferred out 5,000 BTC yesterday (early seized assets), with buy orders from institutions such as MicroStrategy stepping in to absorb them. On-chain transfers have been confirmed, and there hasn’t been a deep pullback in the market.

IV. ETH fundamentals
BlackRock’s spot ETH ETF has seen net inflows for 5 consecutive days, with a cumulative total of more than $320 million.

V. ETH technicals
The Holesky testnet activates the final testing phase of the Pectra upgrade next week, and the mainnet is expected to execute it at the end of September. Account abstraction + Gas optimization are the core changes.

VI. Security
Rho Markets was hit by an approximately $7.6 million attack due to an oracle anomaly; the attacker has already started returning funds. The LSDFi protocol’s risk exposure was briefly exposed.

VII. Regulation
The SEC has delayed its decision on spot ETH ETF options to late September.

Rate cuts are the accelerator, and the SEC delay is the brake—if you press both at the same time, the car won’t move. Germans sell, institutions buy—who wins is anyone’s guess—no one knows how many BTC the Germans still have left. Pectra is the story, Rho is the accident—when the story and the accident coexist, don’t rush to pick a side. In late September, when Pectra and the SEC decision collide, volatility will explode.

Current setup: both long and short have grounds, but there is no dominant narrative.

Key observation points over the next 72 hours:
① Whether the ETH exchange rate can hold above 0.054 before the testnet activation
② Whether the German wallet has any further transfer-out action
③ Whether the Harris August platform is leaked early

All of the above is based on publicly disclosed facts; no long/short advice is being provided. Calibrate yourselves according to your own positions. $BTC $ETH #特朗普同意Clarity法案纳入伦理条款