On July 21, 2026, US stock space-related shares saw a long-awaited broad-based rebound. SpaceX ended a 7-day losing streak on the daily chart, Rocket Lab surged by more than 12% in a single day, and the sector-wide offensive signal was clear.

🚀 SpaceX: A rebound from oversold conditions, but the risks remain

SpaceX was up as much as about 7% during the day, closed up 3.7%, and posted its biggest single-day gain since June 30.

The rebound was driven by three factors: extreme overselling— the share price is down nearly half from the $225.64 peak on June 16, and on July 20 it even dipped intraday to a historical low below $120; institutional support—Macquarie maintained an “outperform the broader market” rating and set a $250 target price; Ark fund bargain-hunting—Cathie Wood’s fund increased its holdings by more than 170,000 shares that day.

But the risks are equally heavy: its August 4 earnings report will trigger internal shareholders’ share unlocks, with up to 911.5 million shares (about $11 billion) becoming eligible for trading; short positions had at one point reached one-third of the float; and the share price is still below the $135 IPO offering price.

🛰️ Rocket Lab: Fundamentals-driven, with a tougher logic

Rocket Lab closed up 5.14% that day, then rose more than 7% again after hours, for a cumulative gain of more than 12%.

The direct catalyst was winning a $266 million fixed-price contract from the U.S. Air Force, covering 12 suborbital launches and 6 additional options. Previously, it had just been selected for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 program, which has a total budget as high as $17 billion. On July 8, Morgan Stanley raised its bullish price target from $185 to $293, saying it is increasingly resembling a “mini version of SpaceX.”

SpaceX’s rebound is more of a technical repair from oversold conditions, and the share-unlock wave and short suppression remain the swords hanging overhead; Rocket Lab, meanwhile, is driven by hard, real government contracts, with a more solid fundamental logic. Whether the sector’s recovery can be sustained depends on the result of SpaceX’s Starship 13th test flight on Thursday and the quality of its August 4 earnings report. #夏日创作营