The market front looks strong recently, but macro contradictions still tightly suppress upside potential. Let’s sort out the core market logic right now:

1. ETF fund inflows bring spot support
On July 20, BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $226.8 million, and ETH ETFs recorded net inflows of $38 million.
This leg higher is not simply about shorting positions being covered; institutional spot buying has truly entered the market. However, inflows on a single day can only support short-term price action. Only by maintaining net inflows for multiple consecutive days can the market reverse the weak mid-term capital positioning.

2. Clear divergence in the macro environment
Earlier, mildly supportive inflation data boosted risk assets. But as the Middle East conflict escalated and long-end U.S. Treasury yields rose in step, the market began repricing the pressure from energy-driven inflation.
Crypto strength is currently offsetting macro headwinds. If oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields continue rising, after Bitcoin and Ethereum surge to capture liquidity, they are highly likely to see a rapid pullback.

3. The market enters a pre-FOMC game phase
The Federal Reserve will hold its rate decision meeting on 7.28-7.29. On the 30th, it will release the initial Q2 GDP reading and the June PCE core inflation data. There are no major economic releases this week; the macro focus this week is on comments from Wαsh.