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Google’s “tomorrow will bring you wealth” earnings report is tomorrow. Wall Street consensus EPS is $2.86, and BofA’s number is $8.38.
It’s off by three times.
It has nothing to do with Google’s own business at all.
The answer is one word: Anthropic.
Google holds about 14% equity in Anthropic. This February, Anthropic’s valuation was $380 billion. In May, after closing its H round, it jumped straight to $965 billion—up 1.5x.
BofA estimates that the unrealized gain from just this one stake is about $800 billion, and it’s booked directly into Google’s income statement.
Last quarter, they already walked through this: in the Q1 report, EPS was $5.11, and the whole screen was shouting “materially above expectations.”
If you strip out the investment unrealized gains, operating EPS is only $2.62—actually one cent worse than consensus.
So if tomorrow you see Google’s EPS nearing $8, don’t jump to conclusions. Most likely, Anthropic’s valuation has been marked up again—nothing to do with Google selling a few more ad slots.
What you really should look at is Google Cloud: last quarter’s growth was 63%, the fastest among the three major clouds.
Backlog is $462 billion—doubling in a single quarter. The CFO himself said, “demand is too big, and capacity can’t keep up.”
Full-year capital expenditure guidance is $180 billion to $190 billion—how much revenue those dollars can bring back is the hard metric for whether AI spending has a return.
Tomorrow’s after-hours EPS number is most likely the biggest smoke bomb of the whole event.