July 20 BTC Market Daily Report丨The market has no choice of direction, but it’s forcing traders to make one

《Jiang Feng Trading Diary》Episode 10

By the time I got to the tenth episode, I found one of the most interesting things about trading:
Predicting the market trend isn’t actually that hard. The hard part is whether you can still keep your patience when the market doesn’t have a clear direction.
The bulls see the exchange balances falling, see institutional capital inflows, see that CPI data is easing;

The bears see that the 67,000–68,000 pressure is right in front of them, see high interest rates, see limited upside momentum, see geopolitical situations being unstable and unsettling, see Brent crude oil rising, and see expectations for September rate hikes—both sides have reasons.

What the market is truly waiting for is who makes the first mistake. Lately, whether you’re long or short, you need to be careful—remember not to bet with full size.

Yesterday, in the ninth episode, I went short around 65,000 BTC, with the highest rebound reaching 65,048. The first target 64,000 has been completed, and I exited at breakeven. I also went short ETH at 1,890, with the highest rebound reaching around 1,896. The first target 1,850 has been completed, and the remaining position has been taken out at breakeven!

So how should you operate today?
I think the biggest variable right now is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Of course, it’s basically a foregone conclusion that July will keep rates unchanged. The main uncertainty is the subsequent meeting minutes. CEM’s forecast data shows the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September is 52.4%, and the probability of a 50 bps hike is 8.9%. So there is currently some divergence in the market!

From the chart, the key resistance levels at 6.7–6.8 are right ahead. Personally, I don’t think there’s much room for the bulls. The upside for ETH is pressured by 1,970–2,000, which is very close—so I still lean toward the bears! Of course, this is only my personal view. Now let’s talk about why I’ve been saying recently that we’re at a critical time window and key levels, and why it’s so contradictory.

First, the bearish factors

The expectations of a September rate hike still exist, and it also has some support. Geopolitical turmoil has kept Brent oil prices elevated, further pushing up inflation. Second, the 10-year Treasury yields are continuously rising. With three bearish factors resonating together, the risk of downside for the market is significantly greater than the upside space.

Next, the bullish factors

Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for two straight weeks, ending the previous streak of eight consecutive weeks. Exchange balances for both Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen to multi-year lows, providing momentum for the bulls.

So now we’re in a very awkward range. Although I personally lean bearish, remember to keep your position size light—don’t go all in to bet. There are too many uncertainties right now.

Light position strategy:

For BTC, in the 66,900–68,000 range above, consider placing short orders in batches;
For ETH, in the 1,970–1,990–2,037 nearby resistance region, consider placing short orders in batches;

The views above are for reference only. There are many uncertainties—please make cautious decisions.

#GUSD年化升至3.8% #事件合约上线 #ETH突破1900美元 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌