The AI supply chain faces commitments totaling more than $10 trillion, and the BIS warns of the risk of overinvestment

According to The Wall Street Journal and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), since mid-2025, major tech giants including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle have collectively obtained more than $1 trillion in deferred revenue from long-term supply contracts, with the scale more than doubling compared with earlier levels.

Oracle alone holds $638 billion in unfulfilled contract obligations, stemming from its agreement with OpenAI, as disclosed in its latest quarterly filing.

In its latest economic report, the BIS warned that although companies lock in future capacity through long-term contracts amid an AI chip shortage, such agreements could expose them to massive losses if demand weakens.

Historical precedents show that during market downturns, these contracts are often renegotiated or suspended; for example, microcontroller manufacturer Microchip Technology terminated its long-term supplier commitment plan when demand reversed after 2021. #事件合约上线