July 21 Trading Log (12:00 PM)

1. Ethereum ($ETH ‌) bounces to 1925: What kind of bear market is this? This is clearly a “monkey market”!
Today is July 21 at 12:00 PM. The market has once again put on a solid “major reversal” show for everyone. From last night to today, $ETH ’s Bitcoin-like coin (the “second biscuit”) didn’t follow the prior couple of days’ sluggish slide to probe 1620. Instead, it stepped on the gas and pushed hard straight up to around 1925, playing out a completely opposite short-term script. This kind of market is really exhausting to trade—one moment it sharply sells off, and the next moment it surges up instantly; both sides get blasted, up and down like a yo-yo. Honestly, this market isn’t any kind of proper one-way bear market at all—it’s simply a “monkey market” with zero rhyme or reason!

2. “Yellow-hair” draws a candlestick chart by himself: Talk is maxed out. The root cause of why the macro is driving this kind of monkey-market up-and-down chaos is all about emotion—everyone knows it in their hearts. Now that overseas “yellow-hair” single-handedly draws the candlestick chart, the technical skills are really too impressive: today he just issued hard words about launching a heavy strike—doing blockades, doing battles—scaring the market half to death; but tomorrow he suddenly flips his tone again, calls for reconciliation, and pushes all kinds of reversals. Policies and mouth bluster change three times in a day, and global capital gets led around in circles by just him. The market right now is being forcibly manipulated by these sudden macro headlines; there are no healthy technical indicators and no real spot buying behind it. The high-level long/short liquidity gets strangled back and forth by his “line-drawing” waves, and all the funds are charging blindly following the news flow.

3. Survival rules in a monkey market: Refuse to be led around, and hold the cycle bottom line Faced with this weird行情 of a “monkey market” and “yellow-hair” drawing lines, the biggest taboo in trading is becoming emotional and getting carried away. Avoid cutting both ends: in a monkey market, the most common mistake is, when it drops, panicking to cut shorts and chase the short side; when it rebounds, rushing to chase longs—resulting in getting slapped on both sides. Maintain strategic resolve: since we already bought 25 September bearish options as a defensive play for the cycle, don’t let this short-term macro mouth-bluster rally disrupt the logic of being bearish through the end of September.
Control your hands and watch the show mainly: this kind of zero-volume行情 that’s pulled up by sudden news comes fast and leaves just as fast. When volatility is extremely disorderly, reduce pointless high-frequency back-and-forth as much as possible, keep position sizing and stop-losses under control, and wait for the market to digest this round of mouth-bluster stimulation. Little thoughts for today: in a monkey market, what tests traders most is psychological toughness. The more the external macro and the “zhuang” mess around with this kind of “monkey show,” the calmer we should be—don’t waste principal on meaningless, violent, choppy swings. Keep risk control in place, keep a steady mindset—we’ll see how long this “drawn candlestick chart” can hold up! #夏日创作营