After SpaceX's IPO, its stock price has already broken below the issue price. Short sellers are currently up nearly $4 billion, and the market cap has shrunk by about $860B from its June peak. At this point, releasing its first quarterly report is a key stress test to validate the logic behind its $1.77 trillion valuation.

The market had already been watching two key milestones: a rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 in early July, which brought about $17.7k of passive buying, and the mid-August earnings report and the lifting of stock lockups. Passive fund inflows failed to stop the stock from falling, suggesting the market is focusing more on fundamentals.

The most alarming detail in the earnings report concerns the actual losses in the AI business. The prospectus shows that the company's 2025 net loss will be $4.94 billion, and market rumors suggest that its AI unit “xAI” is the main drag. If the Q2 earnings report confirms that the AI division continues to burn cash heavily with unclear commercialization, it would undermine the foundation of its narrative that it is an “aerospace money-printing machine subsidizing AI for the future,” and intensify sell pressure after the lockups end.

SpaceX will release its 2026 second-quarter earnings report on August 4
On July 21, SpaceX will release its 2026 second-quarter earnings report on August 4 and hold an earnings webcast, during which it will be livestreamed simultaneously on the X platform. $SPCXB
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