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Good morning, everyone! Market analysis! Thank you all for your support!
Jin10 Data July 21, citing Fox News: U.S. senior officials said that President Trump is expected to decide within the next few days whether to expand military action against Iran and resume full-scale combat. The officials stressed that no final decision has yet been made. They said that if Trump orders the resumption of full-scale military action, its scale and intensity would be “far beyond” the U.S. airstrikes that began on July 7 and continued for nine nights; the earlier airstrikes mainly targeted Iranian military assets related to operations around the Strait of Hormuz. One official also confirmed that the U.S. military had largely avoided striking targets near Tehran or Iranian nuclear facilities. “If full-scale war operations are resumed, this may change,” the official said.
Polymarket’s prediction that the Strait of Mandeb will be closed by August 31 rises to 21%, and the probability of closing it by September 30 once rose to 26%. Yemen’s Houthi group Ansar Allah announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, aiming to disrupt the flow of Saudi crude oil exports. The relevant routes involve more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil shipments. The outcome of the prediction contract is determined based on maritime trade flow data published by the IMF platform PortWatch.