In the morning, a post emphasized continuing to short around 65,000; right after it was said, the chart obliged and dropped—down to around 63,800 during the day.

But at night, news came out of an Iran–US ceasefire. Bitcoin immediately surged and even tapped the 65,000 mark again.

Many people got excited: Has the bad news been fully priced in? Will there be a reversal?

What I want to say is that the 10-day ceasefire is not the end of the war. Oil prices are still high, and the fuse on the geopolitical powder keg hasn’t been removed.

Today’s rally is just a message-driven emotion pulse, not a trend reversal. At the 65,000 level, the shorting value is definitely higher than going long.

The logic remains unchanged: oil prices remain feverish → inflation is hard to cool → rate-hike expectations can bounce back at any time. Bitcoin’s rebound from 58,000 to 65,000 relied on the illusion of “rate hikes being postponed.” Now the illusion is about to break.

Rallies are designed to lure longs; whipsaws are the norm. Thinking stays the same—keep shorting the rebound, and 65,000 is still the target zone. The market always loves to use news to create illusions, but the real hunter only trusts logic and discipline. $BTC #美军结束对伊朗新一轮打击