July 20 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report丨$65k becomes the life-or-death line between longs and shorts: On-chain holdings decline, but the biggest upside resistance has already shown up!

“The River Feng Trading Diary” Episode 9 Candlesticks, indicators—are just the result of price, not the cause of price!

The market never runs the way most people expect. When more and more people start expecting Bitcoin to break $70k, even shouting for new highs, we actually need to stay calm and observe:

There are more and more bullish stories, but has the actual capital that drives prices higher kept up?

At present, BTC is still trading around $64,000. Superficially, the bulls still hold the advantage: ETF funds have not shown sustained panic outflows; the BTC balance on exchanges continues to fall; and long-term holders have not seen large-scale selling.

But on the other hand: interest-rate pressure still exists, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounds, and U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated; the market also remains divided over the Fed’s September policy. CEM predicts a 54% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, an 8% probability of a 50-basis-point hike—this is the biggest risk in the current market!


So the biggest feature of the current行情 is not that there’s no room to rise, but that rising requires a new round of capital “relay,”

I. On-chain data: Long-term holders haven’t fled, but the market is entering a “high-level tug-of-war stage”

According to CryptoQuant’s long-term holder data: right now, the supply held by long-term holders (LTH) remains at a relatively high level. Near previous bull-market tops, a common phenomenon often appears—long-term holders begin to reduce their positions, while short-term investors take a large amount, and the market enters a frenzy.


But currently: LTH hasn’t shown a clear distribution like the one seen in late 2021. This indicates that the real big money doesn’t think the rally is over yet. However, it’s worth noting that after BTC rises from the lows, the supply from short-term holders has increased. This means more and more short-term funds are entering the market. The market is gradually shifting from a “long-term investing phase” into a “trading battle phase.”

If later the price cannot break through the key resistance area, short-term funds are prone to take profits and realize gains.

II. Exchange BTC balance continues to fall: supply reduction is genuinely real

From exchange wallet balance data, the BTC held in exchanges has been steadily declining. Currently, exchange BTC balance is around 2.5 million BTC. This represents that more and more BTC is leaving exchanges and being transferred to cold wallets or long-term storage addresses. Usually, reduced exchange supply is a mid-to-long-term positive for price, because the market has fewer sellable coins.

But supply reduction ≠ a guaranteed near-term rise. Historically, in many phases, exchange BTC balances have fallen, yet price still adjusts due to macro factors. So even if the on-chain trend looks bullish, short-term still depends on the price structure.

III. ETF flows: Institutions haven’t fully exited, but buy pressure has weakened

Recently, ETF fund flows have shown clear volatility. Earlier, continuous inflows helped push BTC higher, but in recent trading days, some flows turned into outflows.


For example: on July 13, ETF net outflows were about $424 million. This indicates institutional capital is not continuously “buying like crazy.” The current market lacks a new catalyst: expectations of Fed rate cuts have strengthened, the U.S. dollar has continued to weaken, and ETFs have resumed large-scale inflows—macro risk appetite has improved. Otherwise, relying only on sentiment, it would be hard to directly break through important resistance.

IV. The Fed: Rate-cut expectations keep flipping; liquidity hasn’t fully opened

Currently, there’s a clear divide in the market regarding the Fed’s September meeting. Rate market data shows that the probability of rate cuts versus maintaining high rates is still in a tug-of-war. The Fed’s balance sheet is still high, but over the past period, it has still been in a contraction phase. The market’s liquidity environment hasn’t returned to the loose stage of 2020–2021.


For BTC, a truly big bull cycle often comes with: a weaker dollar, liquidity release, and higher valuation for risk assets. Right now, we’re still some distance away from that environment.

On the chart now: 65,000–67,000 is the last line of defense for shorts

Key short-term focus: resistance overhead. First resistance: $64,400. If it breaks: $65,000, strong resistance: $65,400 and $66,200, extreme resistance: $67,000.

My trading plan: In the $65,000–$67,000 zone, continue looking for short opportunities.

I think the prior high resistance is clearly visible. There have been multiple tests upward that produced sell pressure. Market sentiment is leaning toward a breakout, so we need to guard against a reverse squeeze. Funds have not formed a clear acceleration in inflows.

If BTC can’t hold above $67,000, the行情 will still be a weak consolidation structure. But near these key time nodes, it’s recommended to participate with light position sizing, and position size must be tightly controlled.


ETH is still weaker than BTC for now. Short-term focus:

Overhead pressure: around 1,890, 1,910, 1,935, and about 1,970. If ETH cannot reclaim and hold above $1,900, rebounds remain an opportunity for high shorts.

ETH needs to break above $1,970 to reopen upside room.


Today’s trading strategy

BTC: Watch short-term resistance around $64,400. Rebound: look for short opportunities in the $65,000–$66,200–$67,000 zone. Support to watch: $63,400, $62,000, and $60,500.

ETH: Short-term resistance around $1,875. Rebound: look for short opportunities in the $1,890–$1,935–$1,970 zone. Support to watch: around $1,800, $1,750, $1,680

Now, BTC looks very much like it’s standing at a crossroads. On one side: exchange balances are declining, long-term holders aren’t疯狂 selling, and institutional money is still there. On the other side: interest-rate pressure hasn’t been lifted; the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are still relatively strong;

There’s massive trapped-fund pressure above $65,000–$67,000. Truly dangerous行情 is rarely about “nobody is bullish.” It’s that when everyone believes a breakout is coming, trading isn’t about predicting the future—it’s about waiting for a position with a higher probability. The market always rewards patience.

— Jiang Feng Capital

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