A new week is here—good morning, fellow traders.

The situation between the U.S. and Iran flared up again over the weekend. Brent crude promptly broke through the $90 mark. The geopolitical flames are burning, but interestingly, the crypto market seems like it’s separated by a heat shield: Bitcoin isn’t dropping—it’s rising instead, steadily rebounding to $65,000.

Someone asked: Has the bad news already been fully digested? Should I be chasing longs now?

My answer is still clear: the logic behind a bearish medium-term view has never changed.

Looking back at what I did last week, when Bitcoin was at $65,000, I clearly signaled that you could try shorting. And when the price later pulled back to below $63,000, I also promptly reminded everyone to take swing profits, repeatedly emphasizing: “The market will keep coming and going—high levels are still opportunities to short.”

Now Bitcoin is back at its “old spot” near $65,000 again, and my strategy is simple: continue to short.

Because the real “powder keg” isn’t on the candlestick chart—it’s in oil prices. Brent has already brushed the $90 threshold, and it could surge higher at any moment. We all know oil is the mother of inflation, and inflation is the anchor for rate hikes. Earlier, the market cooled off because U.S. inflation data softened expectations for rate hikes, which gave Bitcoin room to rebound from $58,000 to $65,000. But now, geopolitical conflict is pushing oil prices higher—essentially adding fuel and kindling to renewed “rate-hike expectations.” Once the September rate-hike outlook comes roaring back, risk assets will be hit first. Bitcoin’s rebound right now looks strong, but in reality it’s more like “a final stubborn stand.”

Of course, the market is always full of noise and temptations to chase longs. Will the U.S.-Iran situation expand? Will oil prices be suppressed by strategic reserves? These are all variables. But as traders, we don’t bet on news—we bet on the direction of probability. Below $63,000, I won’t be greedy; above $65,000, I absolutely won’t panic.

Within this range, repeatedly trying shorts, strictly controlling position size, and setting your stop-losses—these are my reminders for everyone with a risk appetite.

Don’t let the short-term “not falling but rising” throw off your mindset, and don’t lose discipline in the face of the offshore fire. Trading is a contest of expectations. When most people start to believe “this time is different,” that’s often when the old script returns. New week—stay clear-headed, keep positions light, and stay patient. $BTC