At the open on Monday, global markets faced a major suspense: the board’s display had a “standoff” feel. Oil prices gapped higher and opened strong, with US crude directly approaching $85. US stock index futures, gold, and US Treasuries all fell together; gold dropped below $4,000, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.56%. The US Dollar Index opened slightly higher but did not hold above the 101 level.

First, market moves were not as intensely dramatic as people had imagined. But this is not improvement; it means volatility still needs to further break out. Oil has not given back its gains, and other markets have not recovered their losses. In the Asian early session, liquidity remains limited. A lot of long-horizon Western capital, CTAs, and risk parity funds have not truly entered yet, so the prices being seen now look more like the first round of quotes rather than the final pricing. In today’s Asian, European, and late New York trading sessions, there will be sharp reactions, respectively.

· Asian session: The Korean stock market needs to be watched closely. With concerns about AI not yet eased, whether it can withstand the rise in oil prices is worth paying attention to. Closely track the stock price performance of the two storage-chip giants, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
· European session: Pay close attention to whether European bond yields rise quickly and in sync. If US and European bond markets form a resonance, it would mean the market has started trading the logic that “higher oil prices drive long-term inflation.”
· New York session: In the first hour after the US stock market opens this evening, it is the window for quantitative hedge funds and risk parity funds to adjust their positions.

Second, for crude oil, $85 is today’s new pressure line. On Friday, US crude closed at $82; on Monday at the open, it surged toward $85. Oil has already completed one upward shift of its platform. If it pushes to $85 and then falls back, the market will treat it as weekend risk premia. If it holds above $85, the market will reprice energy-related inflation. If it continues pushing toward $88–$90, pressure will spread to global stocks, bonds, and FX.

Third, US stock index futures falling “not hard enough” does not mean it is safe. On one hand, liquidity is insufficient in the Asian early session, and the truly large money has not entered the market yet. On the other hand, the market is still waiting for details of the White House’s response to Iran. What matters for US stocks on Monday is whether Nasdaq futures continue to weaken relative to the Dow, whether the SOX continues to break down, and whether Mag7 can hold up the market. If tonight Nasdaq’s decline is again clearly larger than the Dow’s, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index continues to extend its drop, that would mean capital is still pulling out of AI trades.

Fourth, the US dollar not standing above 101 is the only buffer. At the moment, the dollar has only opened slightly higher and has not broken above 101. This is a buffer showing the market has not yet fully deteriorated. What is truly worth watching today is not which asset rises or falls first, but who “admits defeat” first: does oil price fall first, or do the dollar and US Treasury yields catch up with oil, or does the stock market start repricing risk again? Between these three, they will determine the real direction of the market this week.