Someone asked me what I think about stablecoins de-pegging. Honestly, I’d like to say: reserve transparency is sometimes just a piece of paper. Look at those that claim “100% reserves”—when people pull the data on-chain, the shortfall isn’t small at all, yet when people believe them, they still rush in. At the end of the day, it’s the panic of a bank run that’s the real killer—no matter how much money you have on your books, once others think you don’t have enough, the rush starts, and it becomes a chain reaction.

Lately, there have been rumors of tax hikes in a certain region, and it’s got people in the social circles doing calculations of in-and-out funding costs. I feel like this affects people’s expectations more than on-chain data does. Anyway, my own habit is: first check whether the project team has publicly disclosed the custody addresses, then compare them with the actual circulating supply. After that, it’s all about whether market sentiment can hold up.

Don’t ask me how I know—some whitepapers are written so perfectly that they make me suspicious instead.