Recently, I’ve seen a bunch of people on-chain watching large transfers and unusual activity in hot and cold wallets. They say “smart money is coming in” as soon as they open their mouths, and “the whales are dumping” as soon as they close them. I mean, correlation doesn’t equal causation.

Stablecoin issuance expansion and ETF inflows look pretty exciting, but how much of it is really just arbitrage crews running wash trades, and how much is genuine new money coming in from off-chain? Don’t learn from me—I spend my days digging through exit/liquidation orders, and I find that a lot of those so-called “smart funds” are basically just gambling, wearing a fancy mask.

Anyway, what I’m seeing on-chain with all these flashy transfers, I’ll treat it as noise for now. If you really want to study something, it’s better to look at the depth of liquidity pools and abnormal lending and borrowing interest rates—that’s the real signal. Forget it, I won’t ramble. If you don’t want to get too excited when I talk too much, just… let’s not talk yet.