Will SK hynix collapse, or is it a gold mine?

Ultimate read before the July 24 earnings release | July 18, 2026

I. How the crash unfolded: Black Thursday

On July 16, SK hynix (000660) plunged 15% in a single day, falling from 179.7k won to 152.8k won, the biggest one-day drop since October 2025. Market value evaporated by 8.9 trillion won in one day (about $6.5 billion), and the stock slid to a nine-month low.

The fuse was the company’s rare pre-earnings performance warning: Q3 orders for HBM3E and HBM4 third-/fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory were below internal expectations. Major cloud customers delayed capital spending on AI infrastructure. At the same time, Samsung has aggressively cut prices since June to grab HBM share, squeezing SK hynix’s profit margins.

That day, the KOSPI fell 6.37% to 6,820 points, and the Korean exchange temporarily triggered a sell-side circuit breaker. On top of that, the Bank of Korea announced a 25bp rate hike to 2.75% (the first in half a year and a half), while Middle East tensions between the US and Iran escalated—triple negatives hit at once.

II. Technicals: Strong sell signals, but nearing oversold

Technicals turned broadly bearish. RSI(14) fell to 38.9, close to the oversold zone; the MACD formed a dead cross and the histogram keeps sliding lower; the KDJ is dulling in the upper range. All 12 moving averages are in bearish alignment (MA5 around 185k won, MA50 around 180k won, the 200-day line at 168k won already broke). All 8 indicators are sell, with a strongly bearish overall rating.

However, there is extreme divergence: StochRSI is only 4.99, extremely oversold, while Stochastic is at 85, overbought—suggesting the short-term selloff may be overdone. The Bollinger Bands are widening, with volatility spiking. Key support is 152k won (the 52-week low plus the listing price area); a breakdown would open the door to 140k won. Resistance sits at 160k won (psychological level), 168k won (200-day line), and 180k won (50-day line).

III. Fundamentals: HBM dominance still holds

SK hynix still commands 58% of the global HBM market share (Samsung and Micron each at 21%). In June, South Korea’s semiconductor exports hit a record $179.7k, nearly triple year-on-year. The P/B compressed from 1.45 to 1.23, with valuation rapidly digesting the impact.

Key risks: HBM4 mass production progress is behind expectations; Samsung’s price war squeezes profits; and traditional memory price wars in NAND/DRAM intensify. But the long-term logic for AI compute demand has not changed. The July 24 Q2 earnings report and the August 18 NVIDIA GTC conference are the two major catalysts.

IV. Macro backdrop: rate hike + geopolitics double hit

The Bank of Korea hiked to 2.75% to tackle inflation (June CPI 3.2%, fuel prices up 24.7%). Governor Shin Hyun-soo hinted that further hikes are possible. The won strengthened to 1,350 per $1. US military action against Iran pushed oil prices to $102, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Foreign investors net sold 1.2 trillion won worth of Korean stocks that day, the biggest outflow in six weeks.

V. Forecast of the three main scenarios

[Scenario 1 — Oversold rebound] Probability 40%. RSI is near oversold + listing price support + StochRSI is extremely oversold; a short-term rebound targets 160k–168k won. If the July 24 earnings report shows HBM revenue above expectations, the rebound would be confirmed. Provide a value-buy long execution plan.

[Scenario 2 — Sideways chop in low range] Probability 35%. The 150k–160k won range keeps grinding lower and stabilizing; wait for the earnings report and GTC to set the tone. Trade by buying dips and selling rips within the range.

[Scenario 3 — Continued selloff] Probability 25%. If the earnings report disappoints or geopolitics escalates, a break below 150k won could target 140k won and even 120k won. Only under this scenario does the truly “golden pit” emerge.

VI. Single-trade level recommendations (in won)

Strategy 1 — Primary: Buy the dip (long)

[Entry] 150,000–153k won (52-week low + listing price support zone). Stop loss: 145k won (-3.3%). Target 1: 160,000 won (+5%). Target 2: 168k won (the 200-day line, +10%). Target 3: 180k won (the 50-day line, +18%). Position size: 20–25%.

Strategy 2 — Backup: Breakout chasing long

[Entry] If the daily close holds above 168k won and volume expands, enter at 168,000–170k won. Stop loss: 162k won (-3.6%). Target 1: 180k won (+6.5%). Target 2: 195k won (+15%). Position size: 10–15%.

Strategy 3 — Counter-trend: Sell the rebound (short)

[Entry] If the rebound reaches 178,000–182k won and then stalls before falling back, enter at 178,000–182k won. Stop loss: 188k won (+5%). Target 1: 165k won (-7.3%). Target 2: 153k won (-14%). Position size: 5–8%. Invalidation: if it breaks out above 185k won on high volume, the setup is void.

VII. Position management hard rules

1. Maximum loss per trade <= 2% of total capital. 2. Total position size cap is 35%; Strategies 2 and 3 are mutually exclusive and cannot be held at the same time. 3. Trailing stop: after hitting the first target, move the stop up to entry price + 1%. 4. Before the July 24 earnings report, reduce to half position; decide direction again after the report. 5. The won exchange rate moves a lot—watch FX gains/losses. 6. Monitor HBM order signals at NVIDIA’s GTC on August 18.

VIII. Core conclusion

SK hynix’s 15% crash is the result of triple negatives (demand warning + rate hike + geopolitics), but the 58% HBM market share and the long-term AI logic remain unchanged. P/B at 1.23 is near the low end of recent years, and the 150,000 won listing price area is the key support. The July 24 earnings report is the ultimate turning point for choosing direction.

What do you think? Can SK hynix rebound after the earnings report? Tell me your view in the comments. If you find it useful, like, favorite, and share as a trio. Next time: after the earnings report, I’ll interpret it immediately—don’t miss the subscription.

Risk warning: This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Korean stocks are extremely volatile; investing involves risk, and you should be cautious when entering the market. Data as of July 18, 2026.