July 18th Trading Log (2:20 PM)

1. US stocks closed for the weekend: a calm before the storm, and the downside risk isn’t over yet
Today is July 18th, Saturday, and US stocks are closed today.

Although the weekend market is temporarily on pause, judging from the current macro backdrop and technical trends, US tech stocks have most likely not fully sold off yet. There should be another leg of downside later on. The brutal selloff from a few days ago was just a starter. Once the trend of tightening liquidity takes shape, it won’t be so quick to reverse. If the US is still going to face pressure later, then the crypto market here shouldn’t expect an easy turnaround either.

2. $CHZ ‌ Reality check: just as expected—straight south
Let’s take another look at $CHZ. This thing really didn’t disappoint. After the hype died down, and the whale finished up the baiting-and-hunting process, there isn’t even a decent bounce—just a straightforward, no-nonsense drop all the way down.

So, in the absence of underlying value and major upcoming catalysts, when the broader market weakens, these altcoins fall faster than anyone. Follow the trend—don’t go blindly catching these “falling knives.” Our earlier judgment back then could be said to have been crystal clear.

3. Ethereum ($ETH ‌): longs and shorts start to waver, but I firmly believe in the power of the cycle
As for Ethereum’s $ETH, the current battlefield for longs and shorts is actually quite intense, showing a stuck, stalemated tug-of-war. Short-term capital is probing both up and down, so the direction looks a bit unclear.

But no matter how annoying the short-term chop is, my overall big-picture view remains firmly bearish. As long as macro systemic risk hasn’t been resolved, every rebound in my eyes is just a paper tiger. My personal expectation is that this weak structure should at least stay bearish all the way through the end of September.

To put this cycle logic into practice, I’m not only positioning in spot and derivatives. Personally, I also bought bearish put options expiring on September 25th. Since the long-term logic and strategy are already set, then focus on defense—hand the winning hand to time.
#夏日创作营 #USDT充值理财双重奏
Today’s rambling
Since there’s no US stock action driving the rhythm over the weekend, the market will most likely keep grinding. When longs and shorts are wavering, it’s easiest to wear people’s patience down. This kind of worthless time is exactly what you should avoid constantly fiddling with. Since the long-term options plan is already in place, just relax and get through the weekend—keep company with the dog-whale while it slowly grinds it out.

Set your stop loss, hit like and follow—let’s see if the big trend gives us face at the end of September!
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