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The following views are for reference only; the market is risky and investment requires caution.
10:25
Last night, there was something that came up, so the livestream booking was temporarily canceled. Yesterday’s market saw a steady intraday consolidation and decline throughout the day, and by evening it dropped to 62532, where it found a bottom and formed a strong rebound. After that, in the early hours today, around 2:00, it rebounded to 64385, then saw choppy pullback; it is currently consolidating above 63890.
For the short term, the market is currently holding 63890. It is oscillating within the 63890~64300 range, and then it will once again choose to challenge 65090 upward. If it breaks through and holds steady, it will surge up to test the prior high at 65600. The latest this wave pattern should complete no later than next Tuesday. If it cannot achieve an upward breakout, it will continue to fall. Today, if the market breaks below 63890 and re-enters the lower step, it will consolidate in the 62500~63890 range for 2~3 days, and then continue running downward toward 60k.
At the current stage, the market’s main participants are repeatedly making large up-and-down swings. The main purpose is to lure longs. Any rebound during the session is only a small rebound within a weekly-level downtrend, and the upside space is limited. Once the market sells off to around 60k to clear liquidity and then accumulates long positions, it will form a weekly-level rebound C4-3. Focus on oil prices; as long as it stays above 80$, don’t expect rate cuts—rate hike expectations can arrive at any time.
Market structure: C4-2
Market trend: range-bound consolidation
Trading strategy: mainly short on rallies above 65K