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$ETH is currently in a strong rebound and repair phase after the early-June crash down to the 1506 low. Multiple technical indicators show positive signals.
Overall assessment:
Bullish rebound in the short term, consolidation in the medium term, bearish in the long term
Bullish factors:
Price is above the 10 EMA and 50 SMA, and short-term bulls are aligned
MACD has turned positive and continues to expand, with momentum strengthening
RSI has risen from extreme oversold (12.69) to the neutral zone (56.74), with still room for upside
VWMA confirms the increase with volume support
The Bollinger Band midline (1755) provides steady rising dynamic support
Risk factors:
The 200 SMA (2194) is far above the current price, meaning long-term bearish pressure has not been lifted
The Bollinger Band upper track at 1953 forms nearby resistance
After the July 15 high of 1916, there was a two-day pullback (to 1839), and upside is being blocked in the short term
The 50 SMA is still in a downward trend (not yet turned upward)
Trading volume on July 17 shrank versus the previous day (11.2B vs 12.7B), weakening rebound momentum
Currently, it is in a rebound continuation phase: short-term momentum is upward, but resistance near 1953 is ahead, and two consecutive days of pullback indicate overhead selling pressure. Suggested actions:
For holders: You can continue holding, but set a stop-loss below 1740 (below the 50 SMA). Targets are in the 1953-2000 range.
For those not yet in: Wait for a pullback to the 10 EMA (1823) or the Bollinger midline (1755) to confirm support before considering entry, or chase after a volume-supported breakout above 1953.
Watch closely whether the Bollinger Bands begin to widen—this will be the start signal for a new directional market.