July 16 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report丨The watershed between bulls and bears will be revealed soon—shorts’ final line of defense in the 67,000～68,000 range!

“Jiang Feng Trading Diary” Episode 5: The biggest enemy in trading isn’t a loss—it’s being unwilling to give up a viewpoint you once truly believed in.

Today, let’s objectively analyze the current market situation: without any bullish or bearish bias, let’s dig into the market’s direction!

In yesterday’s Trading Diary Episode 4, I mentioned the short near 65,400; it has now already hit the first target near 64,500, and I also reminded everyone to reduce positions in time! The short on Ethereum around 1,910～1,937 is still around the average entry price. The current spot is actually very awkward—chasing longs is hard, and fading against the small uptrend by going short can easily get slapped!


First, today’s view: short-side dominant, risk index 🌟🌟🌟🌟☆ (be sure to participate with light position sizing). The specific logic is below—if you’re interested, keep reading:

Bitcoin: watch for shorts in the upper range (65,500～65,800); add shorts in the (66,400～67,200) range. Targets to watch: around 64,500～63,500～62,000～60,000

Ethereum: watch for shorts in the upper range (1,950～1,970); add shorts near (1,990～2,037). Targets to watch: around 1,900～1,850～1,750～1,700

For the prudent: add to positions first, then look to enter shorts later


Let me explain why the current position feels awkward, but I lean more toward the short-side logic:

First, CPI + PPI both fell, and rate-hike expectations dropped sharply. The June CPI data was cool. Market expectations for the Fed’s July rate hike fell abruptly from over 40% to 10%. Immediately after, the PPI data also weakened, and the “inflation has peaked” narrative received double confirmation. CME FedWatch shows the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is as high as 89.8%—this has been fully priced into the market recently! I interpret it as basically already realized!


Also, geopolitical tensions are heating up—if the bad news doesn’t drop, that’s strength.

With multiple geopolitical shocks in recent times—such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz—Bitcoin has still held the key support at $62,000, showing strong resilience in market performance.

But! But do you think I’ve flipped and switched sides as a contrarian? Actually, bulls can’t be blindly optimistic either. On-chain data shows that daily realized losses for long-term holders have reached as much as $280 million, and the share of loss-selling has surged from 15% to 43%. Cutting losses at the “stubborn bulls” is the biggest source of selling pressure in the market—this kind of structural selling pressure is far from over.

Macroeconomics isn’t “immediate liquidity easing”: even if CPI cools, the Fed won’t cut rates right away. In a high interest rate environment, the suppression on risk assets is persistent. This rebound is only “trading expectations.” If the PCE data afterward keeps fluctuating, the bulls could collapse instantly!

And one more important point: the price has already been pushed up so much. The key overhead pressure levels are right in front of us, so the upside space for chasing longs is limited and the cost-performance ratio is extremely low! But the short-side upside/downside space is much larger. A recent hawkish data release will very likely trigger a big plunge! So it’s necessary to closely monitor the bull-bear watershed above: the specific pressure situation in the 67,000～68,000 zone!

Of course, Jiang Feng’s view is more biased toward the short side. I think this rally came a bit too easily—fundamentals suddenly shifted to provide support. I’ve always been skeptical, and I don’t know if it’s because I’m used to reverse thinking that I get this feeling! So my view is for reference only. Everyone must think independently, and if you enter the market, you must do so with light position sizing. If you’re a firm bull, I don’t recommend chasing here—wait instead for the market to retest the downside support before considering staged entries!

“Jiang Feng Trading Diary” Episode 5: Candles and indicators are just the result of price, not the cause of price. What truly determines whether you can stay in the market long-term isn’t your ability to predict—it’s risk control.

Do you think Bitcoin will break above 68,000 first, or drop below 60,000 first? Feel free to leave a comment and discuss! #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #韩国KOSPI暴跌5%触发熔断 #沃什称AI是否引发通胀取决于美联储 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌